AI Data Centers and the Power Grid: Will AI Cause Blackouts?

Key facts

• U.S. data centers used about 176 TWh in 2023, roughly 4.4% of U.S. electricity. That could reach 325–580 TWh (about 6.7–12%) by 2028, according to a December 2024 LBNL report for DOE.
• NERC's 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (January 2026) projects North American summer peak demand rising by more than 224 GW over 10 years. That is 69% more than the previous year's projection, and new data centers account for most of the increase.
• NERC finds 13 of 23 assessment areas face supply-adequacy challenges. MISO, PJM, ERCOT, WECC-Basin and WECC-Northwest reach "high risk" by 2028–2029 under current plans.
• On July 10, 2024, about 1,500 MW of data center load in Northern Virginia disconnected at once after a routine transmission fault. On July 22, 2026, about 3,800 MW dropped off in the same area, the largest such event in PJM's history.
• PJM's capacity price rose from $28.92 per MW-day (2024/25) to $269.92 (2025/26). Later auctions cleared at about $325–$333 under a negotiated price cap, and the last two hit that cap.
• As of March 2026, ERCOT was tracking about 410 GW of large loads seeking to connect to the Texas grid, and about 87% were data centers.

The short answer: real risks, but not "AI turning off the lights"

Data centers don't threaten the grid the way a cyberattack or a hurricane does. They are customers, and very large ones. The risks they bring are less dramatic and more familiar to grid planners:

• Supply shortfalls in extreme weather. If demand grows faster than new power plants, transmission and storage, the margin for a heat wave or a deep freeze shrinks. When that margin runs out, operators order rolling blackouts to protect the system.
• Sudden load loss. Data centers can drop hundreds or thousands of megawatts in seconds when they switch to backup power. The grid was built to survive the sudden loss of a large generator, not the sudden loss of a large customer.
• Higher costs. New demand raises prices in wholesale markets and requires new grid infrastructure. Someone has to pay for both.

None of these is unique to AI. AI's computing needs are making them bigger and faster.

How much electricity do data centers use?

The best U.S. estimate comes from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, published December 19, 2024. The update was requested by the Energy Act of 2020.

Year	Data center electricity use	Share of U.S. electricity
2014	58 TWh	—
2023	176 TWh	about 4.4%
2028 (projected range)	325–580 TWh	about 6.7–12%

Source: LBNL via DOE, December 2024.

The 2028 range is wide on purpose. It covers scenarios for chip efficiency, cooling and how quickly planned facilities get built.

Globally, the International Energy Agency's April 2025 Energy and AI report estimated data centers used about 415 TWh in 2024, about 1.5% of world electricity. It projected roughly 945 TWh by 2030, with the U.S. and China making up nearly 80% of the growth, as reported by Nature and Scientific American.

What NERC's reliability assessments say

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) is the regulator-overseen body that sets grid reliability standards. Its 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment came out in January 2026. Its main findings:

• Aggregate summer peak demand is forecast to rise by more than 224 GW over 10 years, compared with 132 GW in the prior year's assessment. Winter peak demand is expected to rise by 245 GW.
• "New data centers for artificial intelligence and the digital economy account for most of the projected increase."
• 13 of 23 assessment areas face resource-adequacy challenges.

NERC uses two warning levels. Elevated-risk areas meet their adequacy targets, but shortfalls are possible under extreme weather. High-risk areas fall short of their targets even under normal planning assumptions.

Area	Highest risk in 2026–2030	First high-risk year
MISO (central U.S.)	High	2028
PJM (Mid-Atlantic and Midwest)	High	2029
ERCOT (most of Texas)	High	2029
WECC-Basin (Intermountain West)	High	2029
WECC-Northwest	High	2029

NERC calls this an early warning, not a forecast of blackouts. The projections reflect utility plans as of mid-2025. The report notes that ERCOT and PJM have since revised their forecasts, and that both show some large-load projects slowing down or never materializing.

The near-term picture is calmer. NERC's 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment, released May 19, 2026, found the grid should have enough resources for typical summer demand. It rated four areas at elevated risk, down from six in 2025, according to Utility Dive. NERC said data centers connecting more slowly than expected had led to lower near-term load forecasts.

When data centers suddenly disconnect

The most concrete new risk is operational. NERC's incident review, published January 8, 2025, describes what happened around 7:00 p.m. Eastern on July 10, 2024:

• A lightning arrester failed on a 230 kV transmission line in the Eastern Interconnection.
• The line's automatic reclosing tried to restore it, which caused six faults within 82 seconds. Protection equipment cleared each one normally.
• About 1,500 MW of load disappeared at the same time, all of it data center-type load. No utility equipment cut these customers off. Their own protection systems moved them to backup power.
• About 1,260 MW stayed off the grid for hours. Many facilities use a control scheme that switches to backup after three voltage dips in one minute and stays there until someone reconnects it by hand.
• Frequency rose to 60.047 Hz and voltage rose to 1.07 per unit. Operators switched off capacitor banks to bring voltage back to normal.

Reuters later reported that about 60 data centers in Northern Virginia were involved, per Bisnow. NERC concluded the event "did not cause significant operating issues," but warned that "as data center loads continue to grow rapidly, the risk could quickly increase."

That risk grew. On July 22, 2026, a fault on a 230 kV line in Dominion's zone was followed by about 3,800 MW of data center load tripping offline in two waves. PJM's total load fell from 99,984 MW to 96,205 MW, Utility Dive reported. PJM restored normal balance within nine minutes, well inside the 30 minutes NERC allows, and is now considering "ride-through" requirements so these loads stay connected during disturbances.

On May 4, 2026, NERC issued a rare Level 3 alert on "computational loads" such as AI training and cryptocurrency mining. Registered entities had to acknowledge it by May 11 and report by August 3 on seven essential actions covering modeling, studies, operation, protection and control of these loads.

Prices: where most people will feel it

For most households, the clearest effect so far is cost. PJM runs a capacity auction that pays power plants to be available years ahead. It serves more than 67 million people in 13 states and D.C.

Delivery year	PJM capacity price ($/MW-day)	Notes
2024/2025	$28.92	—
2025/2026	$269.92	Load forecast up 3,243 MW; supply offered fell after retirements
2026/2027	about $329	Negotiated price cap in effect
2027/2028	$333.44	At cap; 6,623 MW short of reliability target
2028/2029	$325.00	At cap; 6,831 MW short of reliability target

Sources: PJM 2025/2026 auction report; PJM, December 17, 2025; PJM, July 14, 2026.

PJM was direct about the cause. For the 2027/2028 auction, the forecast peak was about 5,250 MW higher than a year earlier, and nearly 5,100 MW of that increase came from data centers. That auction was the first in which PJM's entire footprint fell short of its reliability requirement. PJM also points out that capacity is "a fraction of wholesale electricity costs," and wholesale costs are only part of a retail bill.

Texas: a queue measured in hundreds of gigawatts

ERCOT, which runs most of the Texas grid, told state senators on April 1, 2026 that it was tracking about 410 GW of large loads seeking to connect, and about 87% were data centers. A queue is not a forecast, though. NERC's assessment uses ERCOT's forecast of about 45 GW of new large loads by 2030, 23 GW of them data centers.

Texas is tightening the process:

• Texas lawmakers gave ERCOT authority to curtail new large loads when needed to prevent grid emergencies, NERC notes.
• A Public Utility Commission rule, effective March 1, 2026, sets minimum requirements before a large load counts in ERCOT's forecast. After 2026, only loads with signed interconnection agreements will count.
• ERCOT is moving from studying projects one at a time to studying them in batches about every six months.

See current conditions on our Texas outages page.

What utilities and regulators are doing

• FERC. After an October 23, 2025 letter from the Energy Secretary, FERC issued six show-cause orders on June 18, 2026, according to Bracewell. The orders went to PJM, MISO, SPP, CAISO, ISO-NE and NYISO. Each must justify or reform its rules for new loads of 50 MW or more connecting above 69 kV. ERCOT is outside FERC's jurisdiction.
• NERC. Under a FERC directive, NERC must finalize registration criteria and initial reliability standards for computational loads by December 31, Utility Dive reported.
• Grid operators. PJM is developing "Connect and Manage" frameworks that let large new loads connect but run flexibly when the grid is stressed.
• States. On July 9, 2025, Ohio regulators approved AEP Ohio's data center tariff. New loads above 25 MW pay for at least 85% of their subscribed capacity for up to 12 years, whether they use it or not. The goal is to keep grid costs from shifting to other customers.

So, will AI cause blackouts?

Probably not in the "AI takes down the grid" sense. The evidence points to three slower-moving risks:

1. Thinner margins in extreme weather, especially in regions NERC rates high-risk, which raises the odds of rolling blackouts during a severe heat wave or cold snap.
2. Operational surprises from large loads tripping offline, which grid operators are now modeling and regulating.
3. Higher capacity and infrastructure costs, which are already showing up in PJM.

Forecasts may also be overstated. Both NERC and grid operators have seen data center projects arrive later than planned.

You can follow these signals on our grid threats monitor, which tracks reliability alerts alongside weather and other risks. You can also check the live outage map or read our analysis of U.S. power grid reliability trends. For household readiness, see the grid-down preparedness checklist.

The bottom line

AI data centers are changing the grid's math, not breaking it. Data centers used about 4.4% of U.S. electricity in 2023, and that share could triple by 2028. NERC now flags five regions as high-risk by the end of the decade, and two near-misses in Northern Virginia showed that big, fast-switching loads need new rules. Regulators are writing those rules. The likeliest effects for most people are higher bills and a somewhat higher chance of emergency conservation calls during extreme weather, not a sudden AI-caused blackout.

PowerOutageTracker.com. "AI Data Centers and the Power Grid: Will AI Cause Blackouts?." Accessed November 2, 2026. https://poweroutagetracker.com/guides/ai-data-centers-and-the-power-grid